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Analysis · Financial ADVSR

Big-bank wealth growth leans on IPO listings and recruiting as Merrill advisory flows slow

Morgan Stanley's record wealth haul rode on IPO listings while Merrill's recruited assets doubled and its advisory flows slowed, a gap that makes headline net new assets a weak guide.

Analysis

InvestmentNews reported that Citi's wealth arm booked a record $38 billion in net new assets in the third quarter, extending a revenue streak while the bank works to exit consent orders that the outlet said have weighed on growth since 2020. WealthManagement.com, summarizing the wider third-quarter results, noted that wealth revenues rose at several major firms even as some divisions were weaker, and it named JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup among the firms it reviewed. Taken alone, a record inflow quarter at Citi reads as strong. Read against the rest of the coverage, it is also a reminder that net new assets appear as a single total, and that total can be built from very different sources.

The clearest illustration is Morgan Stanley. Financial Planning reported that more than half of the $232 billion in new assets the firm's wealth management business collected in the third quarter came from private companies going public. WealthManagement.com reported that the firm's net new assets rose 187% year over year, largely because of IPO-related flows, and AdvisorHub described a record amount of money brought in by the wealth operation. None of the coverage suggests these flows were improper. The point is their source. Money that arrives with a public listing follows the calendar of new issues and investor appetite for them, not the steady work advisors do with existing households, so a record quarter from that channel can coexist with a different pace in recurring advisory flows.

Merrill tells a parallel story. Financial Advisor IQ reported that Merrill executives were touting a surge in recruited assets, linking it to the firm's return to active advisor recruiting roughly three years ago and to momentum over the past year. AdvisorHub reported that Merrill said recruited assets had doubled while advisory flows slowed, and that co-president Lindsay Hans pointed to the caliber of advisors joining the firm. Both facts can hold at once. A recruited team arrives with its relationships and assets, which is a genuine addition to a platform. But the same reporting pairs that gain with a slowdown in advisory flows, and the coverage does not show that inbound teams have yet offset it.

Hiring is the lever connecting these numbers. Financial Advisor IQ reported that Wells Fargo's Wealth and Investment Management division posted double-digit annual growth in its financial advisors and Premier bankers, according to executives discussing the third-quarter filing. The same outlet reported that J.P. Morgan added hundreds of financial advisors over the past year as revenue and profits rose. Adding advisors is a bet on future flows. Its payoff depends on whether new hires bring their prior assets, whether those relationships deepen inside a larger platform, and whether support staffing keeps up. The coverage so far shows the headcount more clearly than the recurring revenue it is supposed to produce.

The client base on the other side of the ledger is less captive than headline totals suggest. InvestmentNews reported, citing Coalition Greenwich data, that roughly one affluent client in four divides assets between an advisor and a self-directed platform, and it framed that split as a retention risk advisors cannot ignore. A separate InvestmentNews report on Escalent research found that Gen Z and millennial defined contribution participants are willing to roll over assets but are increasingly inclined toward outside firms. Together, these findings suggest the next wave of rollover money may not default to the firm where a plan sits, and that a hybrid client may keep part of a relationship elsewhere.

Regulatory cost sits alongside the growth story. InvestmentNews reported that the Treasury fined Bank of America $1.2 billion over money laundering violations, and Financial Advisor IQ reported the same fine. Bank of America is not a wealth-growth comparison for this column, and the coverage here does not connect the penalty to its wealth unit. Its relevance is narrower: large-institution results can be shaped by items with little to do with advisors' client work, which is one more reason to read segment figures with care.

The question no single article asks is how repeatable reported growth is. An IPO-driven quarter and a recruiting-driven quarter can both produce record headlines, yet they demand different things. One depends on a listings pipeline; the other depends on a sustained service proposition for advisors and their clients. For advisors weighing a move, a firm's growth figures say little about the service a team will receive after arriving, so the questions to ask are how the platform's new assets were sourced, how advisory flows are trending, and whether support staffing is keeping pace with hiring. Firm leaders face the mirror-image task of separating assets built by their own franchise from assets that arrived through a market window.

What comes next depends on the rate backdrop as well as hiring. InvestmentNews reported that producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the biggest advance since March 2022, adding to pressure on the Fed. A separate InvestmentNews report said core inflation came in hot again, raising the likelihood of an October rate hike. Those are broad market conditions rather than wealth-specific facts, but IPO activity is sensitive to investor appetite, and a tighter policy path could slow the listings that fed Morgan Stanley's quarter. Advisors should watch whether upcoming filings show IPO-linked flows fading while advisory flows hold, or whether the recruited-team channel narrows. This quarter's platforms are growing, but the totals do not yet show how well the advisory model is compounding.

Sources

TopicsRecruiting dealsRegulationHybrid RIAs

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